Dec 27, 2009

FBM KLCI - window dressing over?

fbm-klci SHARE prices on Bursa Malaysia consolidated within the confines of range-bound activities ahead of the Christmas holidays. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Composite Index (FBM KLCI) continued to stay above its critical support of 1,250, closing at 1,263.94 points yesterday.

The FBM KLCI opened marginally higher at 1,267.73 points before slipping to the day's low of 1,255.66 on Monday, giving a day-on-day loss of 11.31 points, or 0.89 per cent.

Share prices opened higher at 1,258.85 points before rebounding to close at 1,260.42 on Tuesday, giving a day-on-day gain of 4.76 points, or 0.38 per cent.

Shares moved sideways in line with the range-bound activities on the regional stock markets on Wednesday. The FBM KLCI closed at 1,260.53 points, with a day-on-day gain of 0.11 point, or 0.01 per cent.

Rebound on regional markets helped lift prices marginally on Bursa Malaysia on the eve of the Christmas holidays. The FBM KLCI closed slightly higher at 1,263.94 points, with a day-on-day gain of 3.41 points, or 0.27 per cent.

On the foreign front, Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 10,466.44 points on Wednesday with a three-day gain of 137.55 points, or 1.33 per cent. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index closed at 10,536.92 points, with a three-day gain of 394.87 points, or 3.89 per cent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended at 21,517 points with a four-day gain of 341.12 points, or 1.61 per cent.

The FBM KLCI staged a mild technical pullback to close at 1,263.94 yesterday, posting a loss of 3.03 points, or 0.24 per cent week-on-week.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Small Cap Index gained 48.23 points, or 0.49 per cent, to close at 9,882.98 points and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia ACE Index added 5.03 points, or 0.12 per cent, to 4,200.53 level.
Following are the readings of some of the FBM KLCI's technical indicators:
Moving Averages: The FBM KLCI continued to stay above its 30-, 50-100- and 200-day moving averages. It stayed below its 10- and 20-day moving averages.
Momentum Index: Its short-term momentum index stayed below the support of its neutral reference line.
On Balance Volume: Its short-term OBV trend stayed below the support of its 10-day exponential moving averages.
Relative Strength Index: Its 14-day RSI stood at the 50.73 per cent level.

Outlook

The FBM KLCI's technical pullback hit its intra-week low of 1,255.66 on Monday, staging a successful re-test of this column's envisaged support zone (1,229-1,263 levels).
Subsequent technical rebound failed to stage a re-challenge of this column's envisaged resistance zone (1,270- 1,299 level). It hit its intra-week high of 1,267.73 on the day.

At the close yesterday, the FBM KLCI's weekly chart continued to stay below the support of its intermediate-term uptrend (See FBM KLCI's weekly chart - A3:A4). It continued to stay above the neckline (A1:A2) of its head-and-shoulders pattern formation.

Chartwise, the FBM KLCI's daily trend continued to stay below the lower support (See FBM KLCI's daily chart - B3:B4) of its intermediate-term uptrend channel (B3:B4 and B5:B6) yesterday. The index continued to stay above the neckline (B1:B2) of its head-and-shoulders pattern formation.

Its daily and weekly fast MACDs (moving average convergence divergence) stayed below their respective slow MACDs yesterday. Its monthly fast MACD continued to stay above its monthly slow MACD.

The FBM KLCI's 14-day RSI stayed at 50.73 per cent level yesterday. Its 14-week and 14-month RSI stayed at 68.81 and 63.55 per cent levels respectively.

Last week, this column commented that the FBM KLCI would trend within tight trading ranges on the four trading days this week. It did. The index trended within a trading range of 12.07 points (1,267.73-1,255.66) traced out on Monday.

From the week's trading behaviour, institutional investors' year-end window-dressing exercise was over and done with. The next four trading days are likely to see range-bound activities on lack of fresh leads.

Next week, the FBM KLCI's envisaged resistance zone hovers at 1,267 to 1,296 levels, while its immediate downside support is at the 1,226 to 1,260 levels.

source : thestar